By Linda Khoo
KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 12 (Bernama) -- South China Sea tensions, the Myanmar crisis and economic and energy security are likely to take centre stage when regional and world leaders gather in Manila from Nov 15 to 17 for the 49th ASEAN Summit and Related Summits, an analyst said.
Datuk Dr Ilango Karuppannan, an adjunct professor at Taylor’s University and Adjunct Senior Fellow at the S.Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, said artificial intelligence (AI) and the digital economy were also expected to feature prominently.
“What connects these issues is the pressure on ASEAN’s freedom of action. Strategic competition threatens trade, maritime tensions affect security, and Myanmar continues to test ASEAN’s credibility,” he told Bernama.
A key question heading into the Manila summit is whether ASEAN and China can conclude negotiations on the South China Sea Code of Conduct (COC) by year-end, a closely watched goal of the Philippines’ ASEAN chairmanship.
Ilango said concluding the talks by year-end remained possible, although he was cautious about the prospects given unresolved questions over the code’s geographical scope, legal status and how compliance would be ensured.
“I support an early conclusion, but the deadline must not become more important than the substance. The code should uphold the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), preserve lawful maritime rights and make behaviour at sea safer and more predictable, he said.
The conflict in Myanmar and the prospects for restoring the country’s full political participation in ASEAN are also expected to be on the agenda in Manila. ASEAN restricted Myanmar’s participation at high-level meetings to non-political representatives following the February 2021 coup.
Ilango said ASEAN could ease those restrictions in stages if Myanmar made measurable progress in the Five-Point Consensus (5PCs) including reducing violence, improving humanitarian access and advancing inclusive dialogue.
“ASEAN should avoid granting full reintegration upfront in exchange for promises. The process must be collectively agreed and tied to implementation,” he said.
Economic and energy security are also expected to be high on the agenda as the conflict in West Asia continues.
Ilango said ASEAN could better withstand disruptions by reducing unnecessary trade barriers, simplifying customs procedures and keeping essential goods moving during crises.
To strengthen energy security, he said leaders should prioritise viable grid connections, mobilise financing and set implementation deadlines to accelerate cross-border electricity trade through the ASEAN Power Grid.
“Countries must also agree on transmission charges, grid access, payment and emergency supply. The political commitment exists; the task is to turn it into workable electricity trading arrangements,” he said.
He said artificial intelligence (AI) and cybersecurity were also expected to feature in discussions on digital cooperation alongside the ASEAN Digital Economy Framework Agreement (DEFA).
“But the focus should be on practical benefits: helping smaller businesses adopt AI, training workers and improving public services,” he said.
As ASEAN’s economies become more digitally connected, he said, member states would need to strengthen cybersecurity cooperation.
“ASEAN needs stronger information sharing and coordinated responses to fraud, data theft and attacks on essential infrastructure,” he said.
The Philippines, as ASEAN Chair for 2026, will roll out the red carpet for regional and world leaders attending the ASEAN Summit and Related Summits under the theme “Navigating Our Future, Together”.
Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim will lead Malaysia’s delegation to the 49th ASEAN Summit and Related Summits.
United States President Donald Trump, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva are expected to attend the related summits, while United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres is expected to attend the ASEAN-UN Summit.
-- BERNAMA